H2N2V1, 1957, Analysis, bibRecord, 000034

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

Identifieur interne : 000034 ( 1957/Analysis ); précédent : 000033; suivant : 000035

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

Auteurs : Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Lone Simonsen [États-Unis, Danemark] ; Rodrigo Fuentes ; Jose Flores [Chili] ; Mark A. Miller [États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]

Source :

The Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 0022-1899 ] ; 2015.

RBID : PMC:4747626

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Grippe humaine (histoire), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Nourrisson, Pandémies (histoire), Santé mondiale, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.
MESH :
- histoire : Grippe humaine, Pandémies.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Nourrisson, Santé mondiale, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Global Health, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (history), Influenza, Human (mortality), Influenza, Human (virology), Middle Aged, Pandemics (history), Young Adult.
MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Global Health, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype, Middle Aged, Young Adult.

Abstract

Background. Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.

Methods. We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.

Results. The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic.

Conclusions. The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4747626

DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv534
PubMed: 26908781
PubMed Central: 4747626

Affiliations:

Chili, Danemark, États-Unis
Maryland

Links to Exploration step

PMC:4747626

Le document en format XML

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<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Ministerio de Salud</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Flores, Jose" sort="Flores, Jose" uniqKey="Flores J" first="Jose" last="Flores">Jose Flores</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematical Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>University of South Dakota</institution>
,<addr-line>Vermillion</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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<term>Adult</term>
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<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Global Health</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (history)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Pandemics (history)</term>
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<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Pandémies (histoire)</term>
<term>Santé mondiale</term>
<term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
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</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Global Health</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold><italic>Background.</italic>
</bold>
 Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Methods.</italic>
</bold>
 We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Results.</italic>
</bold>
 The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Conclusions.</italic>
</bold>
 The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic.</p>
</div>
</front>
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Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

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